THE PROJECTION OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA’S COASTAL CITIES USING SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DATA (1992-2020)

  • Karlina Triana
  • Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama

Abstract

The distribution of sea level rise (SLR) rates is not uniform, shows regional characteristics and changes
over time. Most coastal areas in Southeast Asia countries have similar characteristics within the
geographical proximity with a low-lying topography, high population, and diversified economic
activities. However, the rates of SLR of these countries are varying, and at some places show a large
deviation from the global average. Using earth observation data, SLR can be analyzed in various places,
such as in coastal cities with a high population density and a high risk of flooding. This research was
aimed at updating and analyzing the current trends and rough future projections of SLR in Southeast Asia
coastal cities. The study was carried out using the SLR analysis between 1992–2020, resulting from
altimetry satellite data. SLR analysis was performed on 20 (twenty) coastal cities in the Southeast Asia
region. The study result identified the SLR rate varied between 1.12–7.37 mm/year, with the 8 (eight)
cities having a higher rate than the global SLR rate. The risk of SLR impact is greater in densely
populated and flood-prone cities such as Jakarta, Manila, Pattaya, Vung Tau, and Ho Chi Minh cities. The
satellite altimetry projection predicts that the SLR in Southeast Asia will range 0.05–0.33 m in 2050 and
0.11–0.70 m in 2100. With regards to these insights, decision-makers can establish better planning to face
the potential threats caused by SLR that can lead to actual disaster events such as floods.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Karlina Triana

Research Center for Oceanography, Indonesian Institute of Sciences
Pasir Putih I, Ancol Timur, Jakarta 14430

Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama

The ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management
Jalan Raya Pramuka Kav. 38, Matraman, Jakarta 13120

References

Bellard, C., Leclerc, C., & Courchamp, F., 2014.
Impact of sea level rise on the 10 insular
biodiversity hotspots. Global Ecology and
Biogeography, 23(2), 203–212.
https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12093
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lowe, J. A., & Hinkel, J.,
2016. Spatial variations of sea-level rise and
impacts: An application of DIVA. Climatic
Change, 134, 403–416. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s10584-013-0925-y
Chambers, D. P., Cazenave, A., Champollion, N.,
Dieng, H., Llovel, W., Forsberg, R., von
Schuckmann, K., & Wada, Y., 2016. Evaluation of
the Global Mean Sea Level Budget between 1993
and 2014. Surveys in Geophysics, 38(1), 309–327.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9381-3
Cheng, Y., Xu, Q., & Andersen, O. B., 2014. Sea-level
trend in the South China Sea observed from 20
years of along-track satellite altimetric data.
International Journal of Remote Sensing, 35(11– 12), 4329–4339. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.
2014.916050
Fenoglio-Marc, L., Schöne, T., Illigner, J., Becker, M.,
Manurung, P., & Khafid., 2012. Sea Level Change
and Vertical Motion from Satellite Altimetry, Tide
Gauges and GPS in the Indonesian Region. Marine
Geodesy, 35(sup1), 137–150. https://doi.org/10.
1080/01490419.2012.718682
Fu, L.-L., & Cazenave, A., 2001. Satellite Altimetry
and Earth Sciences, Vol 69: A Handbook of
Techniques and Applications. In L.-L. Fu & A.
Cazenave (Eds.), Satellite Altimetry and Earth
Sciences A Handbook of Techniques and
Applications (1st Edition). Academic Press.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0074-6142(01)80146-7
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., & Coleman, R., 2007.
Assessment of mangrove response to projected
relative sea-level rise and recent historical
reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental
Monitoring and Assessment, 124, 105–130.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M.,
Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis,
X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A., 2014. Coastal
flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st
century sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America, 111(9), 3292–3297. https://doi.org/
10.1073/pnas.1222469111
IPCC, 2019. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Pörtner, H. O.,
Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P.,
Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K.,
Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J.,
Rama, B., & Weyer, N. M. (eds.). In press.
Kopp, R. E., Hay, C. C., Little, C. M., & Mitrovica, J.
X., 2015. Geographic Variability of Sea-Level
Change. Current Climate Change Reports, 1(3),
192–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-00155

Lillibridge, J., 2019. Jason-3 Level-2 Operational,
Interim and Final Geophysical Data Records (XGDR),
2016
to
present
(NCEI
Accession
0122595),

[JA3_GDR_gridded_3x1deg_cycle_mean].

NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Information
(NCEI), USA.
Mansawan, A. A., Gaol, J. L., & Panjaitan, J. P., 2016.
Variation and Trend of Sea Level Derived from
Altimetry Satellite and Tide Gauge in Cilacap and
Benoa Coastal Areas. International Journal of
Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, 13(1), 59–66.
https://doi.org/10.30536/j.ijreses.2016.v13.a2703
Nababan, B., Hadianti, S., & Natih, N. M. N., 2015.
Dynamic of Sea Level Anomaly of Indonesian
Waters (in Bahasa Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmu Dan
Teknologi Kelautan Tropis, 7(1), 259–272.
https://doi.org/10.29244/jitkt.v7i1.9943
Sofian, I., & Nahib, I., 2010. Sea Level Rise
Projections by Using Altimeter Data and IPCCAR4

Models (in Bahasa Indonesia). Globe, 12(2),
173–181.
http://jurnal.big.go.id/index.php/GL/article/viewFil
e/127/124
Sofian, I., Supangat, A., Fitriyanto, M. S., &
Kurniawan, R., 2011. Understanding and Anticipating The Impact of Climate Change in
Coastal and Seas in Eastern Indonesia (In Bahasa
Indonesia). Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika,
12(1), 53–64. https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.
v12i1.86
Stammer, D., Cazenave, A., Ponte, R. M., & Tamisiea,
M. E., 2013. Causes for Contemporary Regional
Sea Level Changes. Annual Review of Marine
Science, 5, 21–46. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurevmarine-121211-172406

Sterlini, P., Le Bars, D., de Vries, H., & Ridder, N.,
2017. Understanding the spatial variation of sea
level rise in the North Sea using satellite altimetry.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122(8),
6498–6511. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012907
Sutrisno, D., Amhar, F., Hartanto, P., Purwono, N.,
Oktaviani, N., Nahib, I., Suwarno, Y., Prihanto, Y.,
Yulaila, U., & Roslaendi, E., 2018. Climate Change
Adaptation Mainstreaming in Regional Planning (in
Bahasa Indonesia). In Center of Research,
Promotion, and Cooperation, Geospatial
Information Agency of Indonesia.
Takagi, H., Esteban, M., Mikami, T., & Fujii, D., 2016.
Projection of coastal floods in 2050 Jakarta. Urban
Climate, 17, 135–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.uclim.2016.05.003
Triana, K. & Wahyudi, A. J., 2020. Sea Level Rise in
Indonesia: The Drivers and the Combined Impacts
from Land Subsidence. ASEAN Journal on Science
& Technology for Development, 37(3), 115–121.
https://doi.org/ 10.29037/ajstd.627
Zikra, M., Suntoyo, & Lukijanto., 2015. Climate
Change Impacts on Indonesian Coastal Areas.
Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 14, 57–63.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2015.07.085
Zlotnicki, V., Qu, Z., & Willis, J., 2019. MEaSUREs
Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies Version
1812. [SEA_SURFACE_HEIGHT_ALT_GRIDS_
L4_2SATS_5DAY_6THDEG_V_JPL1609. Ver.
1812]. NASA EOSDIS Physical Oceanography
Distributed Active Archive Center (PODAAC),
USA. https://doi.org/10.5067/SLREF-CDRV2.
Accessed April 25th , 2020.
Published
2021-12-24
Abstract viewed = 13 times
pdf downloaded = 45 times