Determinan Ekspansi Pasar Mentega Kakao Indonesia di ASEAN+6: Pendekatan SCP dan Efek Perdagangan Berdasarkan Market Overspace dan Overtime

Daffa Ibra Danendra; Ni Ketut Dela Yanti; Novindra Novindra

doi:10.33019/jia.v8i1.7271

Authors

Daffa Ibra Danendra IPB University
Ni Ketut Dela Yanti IPB University
Novindra Novindra IPB University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33019/jia.v8i1.7271

Keywords:

Market Integration, Market Overtime, Market Overspace, SCP Analysis, Trade Effects

Abstract

Since 2000s, free trade in Asia has expanded rapidly with the growth of regional trade agreements (RTAs), strengthening economic integration across the region. This study examines the structure, conduct, and performance of Indonesia’s cocoa butter industry in the ASEAN+6 market and identifies the main factors affecting its trade flows. The analysis applies the Structure–Conduct–Performance (SCP) approach, measures the Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) index, and estimates a gravity model using panel data methods, including Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) with time effects. The findings show that Indonesia’s cocoa butter market is oligopolistic, with the four-firm concentration ratio (CR4) and minimum efficient scale (MES) exceeding 60%. The average IIT value of 9.6 indicates weak market integration. Trade estimation results suggest that free trade agreement (FTA) implementation, trading partners’ GDP, exchange rates, and geospatial factors such as landlocked status and shared borders significantly influence trade flows. Moreover, FTAs generate trade creation effects. The PPML time-effect results further confirm long-term expansion of Indonesia’s cocoa butter export market, reflected in market overspace and market overtime dynamics, highlighting the role of FTAs in promoting more integrated and sustainable trade within the ASEAN+6 region.

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